The turnout for the local election was a fantastic 80.4% 67.7% (oh dear I just checked and the turnout figure appears to have been revised), almost double that of four years ago. The most interesting thing to come out of this is that decent voter turnout here appears to be very good for labour, and very bad for the tories, with a 7 point swing to labour (I’m not exactly sure if i calculated it right, but here goes):
lab = sum(total lab vote 2010/total vote 2010)-sum(total lab vote 2006/total vote 2006) = 5% positive
con = sum(total con vote 2010/total vote 2010)-sum(total con vote 2006/total vote 2006) = 9% negative
diff/2 = 7%
On the fringes, the greens got more votes (4%) than the bnp (3%) too, another reversal of national behaviour, so overall, and considering the extremely high turnout, it looks like the residents of Shooters Hill present a fairly socially progressive political outlook compared to the country as a whole.
The lib dem share went down by 3%, which leads me to speculate that the downturn in con/lib fortunes is probably not for want of trying (the tories look to have spent a small fortune on glossy leaflets) but rather the mobilisation of the left. Certainly it is possible that some of the green/liberal vote went to labour, although it’s curious to note that the local green got more votes than their parliamentary candidate for eltham, who only got 419 votes, losing his deposit… Considering that, it looks like shooters hill greens probably did vote tactically nationally but possibly not locally…
I haven’t really given much thought to the national election, but now that clive efford has successfully staved of the tories in their target seat #68 (based on the 68th smallest amount of swing needed – 4.1%), i’m looking forward to seeing what happens with his proposals for green flag paths and signs (and gym!) in eaglesfield park. simon emmett, who was very gracious in defeat, has announced that he will be watching labour in the proposed regeneration of swingate lane shops and in the opposition to the tetra mast (but not the other masts?) – i.e. can the emergency services have it moved somewhere else?
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2010 Council Election for Shooters Hill Ward (turnout |
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| Name | Party | Results |
| Phillip Jonathan BECKER | Green Party | 659 |
| Mo BURGESS | Conservative | 1,881 |
| Richard John CHANDLER | Conservative | 1,628 |
| Simon EMMETT | Conservative | 1,777 |
| Edward OTTERY | Liberal Democrats | 1,210 |
| Harry Drummond POTTER | Liberal Democrats | 939 |
| Jagir Kaur SEKHON | Labour | 2,917 – ELECTED |
| Barry Ian TAYLOR | Labour | 3,093 – ELECTED |
| Danny Lee THORPE | Labour | 2,788 – ELECTED |
| Steven Thomas TOOLE | Liberal Democrats | 1,009 |
| Eddie Herbert WHITE | British National Party | 513 |
For comparison, here’s the details from last time:
| 2006 Council Election for Shooters Hill Ward (turnout 42%) | ||
| Name | Party | Results |
| Linda Susan Cunningham | Conservative | 1409 |
| Sylvia Gladys Derrick-Reeve | Liberal Democrat | 796 |
| Elizabeth Patricia Drury | Conservative | 1393 |
| Denise Hyland | Labour | 1527 – ELECTED |
| John Kelly | Labour | 1589 – ELECTED |
| Edward Ottery | Liberal Democrats | 736 |
| Simon Lester Tee | Conservative | 1326 |
| Danny Thorpe | Labour | 1540 – ELECTED |
| Michael Westcombe | Liberal Democrats | 660 |